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Special report: Why Tiger Zinda Hai needs to earn Rs250-300 crore to be a hit

Trade analyst Atul Mohan, in a conversation with Cinestaan.com, lists out reasons why Yash Raj Films' most expensive film till date needs to end the year well.

Keyur Seta

A number of content-oriented Hindi films have got their due this year. But 2017 hasn’t seen a juggernaut performance at the box office, with the Khans experiencing a run down. Rohit Shetty’s Golmaal Again was the only film to have crossed Rs200 crore. But it seems the last month of the year will prove to be the silver linning with the release of Salman Khan's Tiger Zinda Hai. 

However, much depends on how much the film earns in its first weekend. Trade analyst Atul Mohan believes Tiger Zinda Hai will reach the Rs100 crore mark in its first extended weekend, i.e. including Monday for Christmas. “Day one will be around Rs25 crore or more. It is releasing in round about 4,500 screens. It should earn around Rs110 crore in the first four days,” he told Cinestaan.com during a conversation. 

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He backs his claim with reasons. “The buzz has been good. Advance booking also has been decent. Of course, because there is Salman Khan. From the trailers, it looks like the film has fights and the kind of masala people want from Salman,” added Mohan. 

He also observed that it is imperative for the film to earn well, since it is Yash Raj Films’ highest budgeted film ever. “It is said that it’s their most expensive film till date. The budget is said to be around Rs140 crore,” he said. 

Hence, according to him, it has to cross a big number in order to be called a successful film. “We only consider theatrical business to know whether the film is a hit. We don’t consider satellite or digital rights. So, if the budget is Rs140 crore, it needs to earn Rs250-300 crore,” said Mohan. 

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From the buzz so far, he feels Tiger Zinda Hai does stand a chance of reaching that score and becoming the highest grosser of 2017. “Golmaal Again did Rs200 crore. We are expecting Tiger Zinda Hai to go beyond that. After earning around Rs110 crore in the first four days, it will depend on how the content is appreciated,” he said. But it won’t be favourable for the film if the word-of-mouth isn’t good. “Then it will be gadbad (trouble),” he added. 

If the pendulum tilts in the positive side and the film manages to impress with its content, then, according to the analyst, it might well become Salman’s highest grosser ever. “His highest grosser is Bajrangi Bhaijaan. It has been two and a half years since it released. The ticket prices have also increased since then. We are hoping that it (Tiger Zinda Hai) becomes Salman’s highest grosser. This will improve the scorecard of the year. Because of Padmavati not releasing, this year hasn’t been so great for us,” Mohan explained. 

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He believes that even if Padmavati had released, it would have not affected Tiger Zinda Hai’s business. “Without watching the film, nobody can predict. Even when two big films have released in a short period, both have done well. Just like Bajrangi Bhaijaan (2015) and Baahubali: The Beginning (2015),” he said. “It all depends on how powerful is the content. There is a scope for two big films to do big business even when released in a small gap.”

From the trailers and promotional material, Mohan sees only one weakling in Tiger Zinda Hai. “Musically it looks weak. Normally, there is a hit number in Salman’s films. But here it seems the songs are forcefully included. Just for the sake of having them, like we have at the end titles,” he said. 

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However, he is sure that the debacle of Tubelight (2017), Salman’s last release, won’t have any effect on Tiger Zinda Hai. “Tubelight didn’t do well because it was a bad film. Salman is such a big star that it doesn’t matter to him. Nobody is blaming him for Tubelight. People went to see (Tiger Zinda Hai) for Salman. And despite it being a bad film, if it still made Rs110 crore, it speaks about his star power,” he said before signing off.